DJ4K – Derek Jeter’s Quest To 4,000 Hits?

As I sat on my couch last night, watching MLB Network, a very valid questions was posed by the network analysts of whether or not Derek Jeter has a shot of getting to 4,000 hits, or better yet, the even bigger milestone of passing the all-time hit leader, Pete Rose. Rose, who had a total of 4,256 hits in his career, is currently over 1,000 hits ahead of Jeter, who has 3,088 hits to show for his 17-year career. No chance of him getting over 1,000 hits before he retires, right? Well, although it’s an uphill climb for Jeter, the idea of Jeter getting at least to 4,000 hits isn’t out of the question. When you compare Jeter to Rose, in terms of hits through 2,426 games, Jeter is 22 hits ahead of Rose. A pace I feel he can keep up.

Jeter recorded 162 hits this past season alone, and if he can keep up an average of at least 150 hits a season, he could get to 4,000 hits in 6-years time. That’d put him at 4,000 career hits by his 24th season; or age 43. Though Jeter is already considered old (by baseball standards) Rose didn’t retire until age 45. Add two extra seasons onto Jeter’s career and you end up with roughly 20 hits more than Rose had in his career. I’m not saying that it’s extremely likely that Jeter will pass Rose, I’m just saying that it’s more likely than people are giving Jeter credit for. Jeter does an incredible job in his at-bats of fouling off tough pitches for one he can loop over an infielders head for a base hit. It’s this skill that I feel will lead him to a 4,000 (or more) hit career.

So, do you agree, or disagree with me? Do you think Jeter is on track to a 4,000 hit career? Maybe even more? Let me know:

5 Comments

Good blog but I don’t think once he’s done at Shortstop if he’s DH material for a long period of time. Of course I’m an Angels fan, and I don’t like the Yankees, but Jeter is a class-act old school professional. I wrote a paper on his 3,000 hi,t watched the HBO special, so I do consider myself a fan of him. Usually the DH position is a power hitters spot in the order. I can’t remember a player his size flourish as a DH.. Again you make good points and he’s a true professional

For me, there’s just too much unpredictability in Jeter’s future. Besides the fact that he is on his way down now, there is also the issue of what team he would play for. This past contract was a tougher one than most people expected and it will only get worse. With the Yankees trying to get under the luxury tax threshold, they can’t overpay Jeter like they are now and expect to win. Jeter definitely has the stroke to remain effective, but he has one glaring disadvantage to Rose: He’s a righty. Rose was a switch hitter, so he didn’t have to remain as quick on the ball. Also, a lot of record-holders are in their spot, because not only were they great, but they also got a bit of luck. I had Jeter getting to 4,000, but I don’t see him becoming the all-time hits leader.
-Mateo

http://mateofischer.mlblogs.com

GHOSTFACE714-
I agree. Jeter is one of those guys, that even if you don’t like the Yankees, you like him. Or at least respect him.
MATEO-
You make a bunch of great points. I too think it’s a long shot, due to the unpredictability of how Jeter will play a few years down the road. We’ll just have to see.

I am surprised at how many people think Jeter has a shot at 4k, much less Rose’s record. Jeter, a first ballot HoF guy, is in the kind of decline we have seen in those before him when they hit their late 30s. Yes, he is hitting .306, but largely due to a torrid opening month. Since then, it has not been very good (.263). He has hit only .300 in 3 of the last 14 baseball months. He hasn’t hit rightys since 2009 (check his splits). His once mediocre power is now virtually non-existent (nearly 80% of his hits are singles), so there is no room for him at DH. We know his days at SS are numbered, as his range continues to decline, and he was never a very good defensive SS to begin with. So how does he play for 5 or 6 more years?
Jeter lovers will cry foul, but that is the objective truth. If he never gets another hit again, he’ll go down as one of the greats. But it isn’t the 1990s, it will be 2013 next year and Derek’s best days are already well behind him.
Incidentally, Derek is 7 whiffs from owning the all time Yankee KO record. He has already struck out far more than any SS in history. Amazing stats when you consider his high career BA.

Objective? When was Jeter ever a true power hitter? Every player’s power numbers decline in their late 30s (except drug enabled players like BB).

With that said Jeter is on pace to exceed his extra base hit total from the previous 2 seasons And match or beat his slugging % from his age 23 and age 28 seasons.

Jeter is hitting .293 against righties.

He had as many hits in July as his ‘torrid opening month’. He has hit over .290 in 6 of the last 7 baseball months.

Decline? What decline? HE IS LEADING THE AL IN HITS!!!

And this article was about hits, right?

The league leader in hits…..who isn’t being objective?

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