My Prediction for the 2012 World Series

With last night’s win over the Cardinals, it’s official: The San Francisco Giants will be taking on the Detroit Tigers in the 2012 World Series; which begins Wednesday in San Francisco.

Now that the matchup is set, I wanted to take the time type up a blog post with my prediction of who I think will win the World Series. Though I’m normally way off when making predictions–I had the Rangers and Angels making the World Series in my March predictions–I feel fairly confident this particular time. (After all, I have a 50 percent chance of getting it right.)

With that said, this is how I feel it’s going to play out:

Game 1- Tigers
Game 2- Giants
Game 3- Giants
Game 4- Tigers
Game 5- Tigers
Game 6- Giants
Game 7- Giants

That’s right. Not only do I have the World Series going seven games, but I strongly feel the Giants are going to pull it out–both of which many people disagree with. A lot of people seem to think the Tigers are going to mow down the Giants with little effort whatsoever, and while that’s not out of the question, I just don’t see it happening.

First of all, the Tigers are going into the World Series on five days rest, while the Giants merely have today. While logic would tell you that rest is a good thing, in the case of post season baseball, I see it as working just the opposite. The Giants have momentum that the Tigers don’t, and while the Tigers seem to be the favorite to win the World Series I think they’re going to surprise a lot of people; and not in a good way.

One of the main reasons I think people feel the Tigers are going to be SO dominant against the Giants is because of the way they clobbered the Yankees in the ALCS. Something you have to keep in mind is that the Yankees weren’t themselves during the series. Lets face it: They sucked. That’s about as straight forward as I can put it. The only reason the Tigers were so impressive is because the Yankees played horribly. While I’m not trying to take anything away from the Tigers, I just want to get the point across that had the Yankees of played like THE Yankees, things wouldn’t have gone the way they did; in terms of a sweep.

Now, something the Tigers have that the Giants don’t is Justin Verlander. Every time he’s on the mound, you have to like the Tigers chances of pulling out a victory. But while they have one of the best pitchers in baseball–along with the Triple Crown winner, in Miguel Cabrera–in the end, I don’t think they’ll be able to hold off the surging Giants. The Giants have too much going for them.

In the end, no matter who you have winning the World Series, as a baseball fan, you have to be excited about the upcoming week of Major League Baseball. Anytime you have a couple of teams as good as these going head-to-head in a pressure filled Fall Classic situation, you’re sure to have some incredible games.

So that’s who I have winning the World Series. Who’s your pick?

Leave a comment below with who you have winning, and in how many games.

My Thoughts On the A-rod Situation

Alex Rodriguez is struggling at the moment; there’s no denying that.

Posting a mere batting average of .130 (3-23) so far this postseason, Rodriguez has quickly found himself in an uncomfortable situation. A situation that has subsequently led to an even more trying predicament for Yankees manager Joe Girardi, who for the second straight game regretfully elected to exclude A-rod from the starting lineup. But as many are asking: Is the decision to bench Rodriguez truly the smart one?

That’s the one thing no one can seem to agree on.

“We’re trying to do what’s the best thing to win games”, said Joe Girardi, in response to his decision to bench A-rod. “This is difficult. When I went into the postseason, this is not what I imagined having to do. You thought you’d have a set lineup and you might change it against a right-hander or a left-hander a little bit, but the struggles have been tough. We felt we had to make changes.”

But these “changes” aren’t the correct ones in my opinion. Yes, Rodriguez is performing horribly so far this postseason, but you don’t bench the one player on the team that can make a drastic impact with one swing of the bat; even when it seems they’re completely lost at the plate.

You can’t possibly tell me that Eric Chavez in the lineup makes the Yankees better than with A-rod. Chavez is yet to notch a hit (in 14 at-bats) this postseason. Why would you opt to play him over Rodriguez? It truly baffles me.

Rodriguez had this to say in response to his benching:

“I’m obviously not doing somersaults. I’m not happy about it. Obviously you come to the ballpark feeling that you can help the team win, and when you see your name is not in the lineup, you’re obviously disappointed. You’ve got to just shift to being a cheerleader and also make sure that you’re ready when your number is called.

“….for me, it’s tough”, added Rodriguez. “I’m a competitor, I’ve been that way since I was 5 years old, and I love to compete. I really feel in my heart that anytime I’m in that lineup the team’s a better team, without a question. So we’ll disagree there till the end.

“I’ve played this game for a long time and bottom line is, anytime I’m in any lineup, I think that lineup is better. It has a better chance to win. I feel I can bring that type of impact, and I’m also at any point ready to break through. I thought my at-bats in some of those games got a little bit better. The last two [in Game 3], I hit two rockets. Anytime I’m in the box, the game can change, and everyone knows that.”

Indeed; everyone does know that. Which leads me to question Girardi’s decision.

All it takes is just one hit–one swing of the bat–for Rodriguez to fall back into the groove of things.

Alex Rodriguez is one of the greatest players the game has ever seen. Admittedly, when he’s struggling like he is, benching him is the easy thing to do; but that doesn’t make it the right thing to do–especially when Rodriguez isn’t the only one having a tough time at the moment. As a team, the Yankees are batting .200 (58-290) so far during the playoffs, and show no signs of improving anytime soon.

All the more reason to give A-rod another shot.

Rodriguez could very well fail, yet again, but he could also surprise the world and get a hit in a big spot. Without him in the lineup, however, no one will ever get the chance to find out.

My Vote for National League Rookie of the Year

This is the fourth and final blog post in a series of blogs that I’ve been publishing since Tuesday; all of which have focused on who I feel should win the three major awards of Most Valuable Player (MVP), Cy Young and Rookie of the Year (ROY). (If you haven’t read my posts on who I think should win the AL MVP, NL MVP, AL Cy Young and NL Cy Young, go ahead and check those out now.)

Despite the title, this post isn’t limited to who I feel most deserves the National League Rookie of the Year, as it also includes my pick for the American League portion. I didn’t include AL ROY in the title for two reasons: a) it would’ve make the title too long, and b) there’s really nothing to discuss when it comes to who most deserves the award. It’s Mike Trout, hands down.

The fact that Trout lead all American League rookies in every conceivable category is mind boggling, but what’s really incredible is that Trout was able to produce numbers that no other rookie in the history of the game has been able to. Which is why there’s no debate when it comes to this particular award. The 2012 American League Rookie of the Year will go to Mike Trout.

Moving on to the National League Rookie of the Year; where there’s a bit of a debate as to who should win.

Some say it should be Bryce Harper who wins the award, while others make the case for Todd Frazier. What’s my opinion on who should win? I’m glad you asked. Here are my thoughts on who most deserves the award, starting with Todd Frazier:

Todd Frazier came in as a replacement for the injured Joey Votto, and really impressed me with what he was able to do. Posting a .273 batting average, with 19 home runs and 67 RBI’s, Frazier was able to help out the Cincinnati Reds in a big way during what would have otherwise been a precarious situation without their superstar Votto.

While I’m not calling Frazier a superstar by any means, he was just what the Reds needed to stay alive without Votto. By putting up great stats–and subsequently helping out his team– Frazier definitely deserves to be considered for National League Rookie of the Year.

Now, moving on to Bryce Harper, who’s only been in the big leagues for 5 months, but has been in the media’s eye for what seems like forever. Coming up at the mere age of 19, Harper was on everyone’s Rookie of the Year radar since his first at-bat on April 28th; and the stats Harper was able to produce since, only add to his case.

Hitting for a .270 average, with 22 home runs and 59 RBI’s, Harper put up stats that are almost unheard of for someone of his age. Finishing just 2 home runs shy of the record for most home runs by a teenager–24 being the current record, held by Tony Conigliaro–Harper certainly turned many a head during this his rookie season.

One thing I feel keeps tracing back down to Harper is his age–being one of the main reasons people look at Harper with a twinkle in their eyes that’s not there with Frazier. But I don’t feel age should be a factor when voting for ROY. If Harper was, say, a 21 year old rookie, would people be putting him on such a high pedestal? Probably not.

But that doesn’t change the fact that Harper sent the jaws of onlookers (teamates and fans alike) sailing to the ground everytime he did something impressive during the season–which seemed to be every other night. Which is why he’s got a great chance at winning the National League Rookie of the Year.

Both Harper and Frazier are two great candidates, but neither is my pick for NL ROY. (Bet you didn’t see that coming.) No, I’m going with a guy that flew completely under the radar, and yet, put up better stats than both Harper and Frazier. That player being Wilin Rosario.

Some of you might be thinking to yourselfs, “Wilin who?!”; and that wouldn’t be entirely your fault. Rosario hasn’t received the media attention that Todd Frazier and hyped up phenom Bryce Harper have received–partly due to the fact that both Harper and Frazier played on winning teams, while Rosario did not. (Rosario was stuck on a Colorado Rockies team that finished the year last in their division, with a record of 64-98.)

Now, before you go calling me crazy for saying that Rosario deserves the ROY more than any other player in the league, take a second to look at the stats of Rosario and you’ll see what an incredible rookie season he was able to string together:

The one thing that really jumps out at me is the fact that Wilin Rosario was able to smack 6 more home runs than Bryce Harper–as well as 12 more RBI’s–in 137 fewer at-bats. And taking a look at Todd Frazier, it’s more of the same; as Rosario blasted 9 more home runs and 4 more RBI’s in 28 fewer at-bats. Yet all the media can seem to talk about is Harper; with the occasional mention of Frazier. How about giving Wilin Rosario some air time? He deserves to be mentioned in the conversation.

Wilin Rosario led all National League rookies in home runs, RBI’s and slugging percentage, and nevertheless probably won’t receive the votes needed to win the award. But that doesn’t change the way I feel about Rosario’s incredible season.

Which is why Wilin Rosario is my pick for the 2012 National League Rookie of the Year.

Do you agree or disagree with me?

As always, feel free to leave a comment below.

———————————————————————————

As stated, this was the final awards related blog entry I plan to post until the winners are announced next month. Here’s a quick recap of my pick for each award:

American League M.V.P.: Mike Trout

National League M.V.P.: Ryan Braun

American League Cy Young: Jered Weaver

National League Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

American League Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout

National League Rookie of the Year: Wilin Rosario

Even if you don’t agree with any of my picks, I appreciate you taking the time to read what I had to say over the past week. Whether you’re a frequent reader, or just happened to stumble across this post through a Google search, I appreciate you all the same.

Thank you.

My Vote for National League Cy Young

This is the third in a series of four blog posts that I plan to type up between now and Friday; all of which will focus on who I feel should win the three major awards of Most Valuable Player (MVP), Cy Young and Rookie of the Year (ROY). (If you haven’t read my posts on who I think should win the AL MVP, NL MVP and AL Cy Young, go ahead and check those out now.)

If you’ll remember back to my post on American League Cy Young, I tend to rely purely on stats when making a pick for which player most deserves the Cy Young award. In fact, there were SO many good candidates for National League Cy Young that I ended up letting the stats make the decision for me.

I took the National League starting pitchers with ERA’s below 3.00 (seven pitchers in all) and compared them from 20 different statistical angles. (I chose to use so many different stats to compare them because I felt that using Wins, ERA and strikeouts alone didn’t tell the whole story of how good a particular pitcher was.)

My method works as follows: The pitcher with the best numbers in a given category receives 1 point; with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc., place pitchers receiving the corresponding point amount. (The occurence of a tie in a particular category results in the tied players receiving the same point amount.) In the end, the pitcher with the lowest combined total would be my pick for the Cy Young award.

It took me awhile to crunch all of the numbers, but once I finally finished, this was the result:

(I realize it’s a bit blurry. You can click it for a clearer look.)

For those of you that still can’t read the chart (even after clicking on it) here are the results of the comparison:

Clayton Kershaw: 1st place-with a total of 61.

R.A. Dickey: 2nd place-with a total of 69.

Matt Cain: 3rd place-with a total of 72.

Gio Gonzalez: 4th place-with a total of 77.

Kyle Lohse: 5th place-with a total of 82.

Johnny Cueto: 6th place-with at total of 84.

Jordan Zimmermann: 7th place-with a total of 91.

As you can see, Clayton Kershaw came out on top, thus making him the statistical winner (and my pick) for the 2012 National League Cy Young award. (This would make his second straight Cy Young; as he won it in 2011.)

Though Kershaw’s record of 14-9 would argue against it, he had an outstanding year; leading all of MLB starting pitchers in ERA. While we’re on the subject of the win-loss record: I feel it can be a bit misleading.

Though 15 other National League pitchers had more wins than Kershaw (with Gio Gonzalez recording 21) the win-loss record is one of those stats that’s out of the pitcher’s hands for the most part. As the pitcher, you can go out there and throw a gem of a game–giving up only a couple runs–but if the lineup isn’t clicking on that particular day, you’re not going to get the win.

So, while it would appear at first glance that Kershaw didn’t have a Cy Young worthy year, if you take the time to look closely you can clearly see that Kershaw was the NL’s best all-around pitcher of the season; and as such, is my pick for 2012 National League Cy Young.

Do you agree or disagree with me?

As always, feel free to leave a comment below.

My Vote for American League Cy Young

This is the second in a series of four blog posts that I plan to type up between now and Friday; all of which will focus on who I feel should win the three major awards of Most Valuable Player (MVP), Cy Young and Rookie of the Year (ROY). (If you haven’t read my posts on who I think should win the AL MVP and NL MVP, go ahead and check those out now.)

When making a pick for American League Cy Young, I feel I can rely on stats (and not just personal opinion) more so than I did with Most Valuable Player. Unlike with MVP–where I didn’t let stats influence my decision–stats played a big role in my decision making for AL Cy Young; as the numbers don’t lie.

But don’t get the impression that the decision was an easy one. There are SO many good candidates for AL Cy Young that it made it impossible for me to choose just one player. So I ended up letting the stats do the deciding for me.

I took the American League starting pitchers with ERA’s below 3.00 (Price, Verlander and Weaver) and compared them from 20 different statistical angles. (I chose to use so many different stats to compare them because I felt that using Wins, ERA and strikeouts alone didn’t tell the whole story of how good a particular pitcher was.)

My method works as follows: The pitcher with the best numbers in a given category receives 1 point; with the 2nd and 3rd place pitcher receiving 2 and 3 points, respectively. (The occurence of a tie in a particular category results in the tied players receiving the same point amount.) In the end, the pitcher with the lowest combined total would be my pick for the Cy Young award.

It took me awhile to crunch all of the numbers, but once I finally finished, this was the result:

As stated earlier, the pitcher with the lowest combined total is declared (by me) as the winner. Which makes Jered Weaver the statistical choice (as well as my pick) for AL Cy Young.

I’m a bit shocked by the results, but not THAT shocked. (It’s not like Jered Weaver doesn’t deserve it.) Posting a record of 20-5, with a 2.81 ERA, Weaver is definitely worthy enough. He led the league in opponent batting average (.214), as well as WHIP (1.02), and in addition, pitched a no-hitter on May 2nd against the Twins.

Just icing on the cake for Jered Weaver–my pick for 2012 American League Cy Young.

Do you agree or disagree with me?

As always, feel free to leave a comment below.

My Vote for National League M.V.P.

This is the first of four blog posts I plan to publish over the coming days; all of which will focus on who I feel should win the three major awards of Most Valuable Player (MVP), Cy Young and Rookie of the Year (ROY).

If you missed the post on who I feel should win AL MVP, go ahead and check that out now. If you’ve already read it, then you know the guidlines I tend to follow when making a vote for MVP:

I’m not all that influenced by stats, and I especially don’t lean towards a player just because their team made it to the playoffs and another player’s team didn’t. I’ve always chosen to look at it by which player had the greatest positive impact on their team, and I’m not about to change things.

As I stated in a previous blog entry, I don’t want you to think of these as predictions, but rather as cases for which player I feel deserves each award. The player I feel most deserves a specific award isn’t necessarily the player I think will win it. (Keep that in mind as you’re reading.)

Andrew McCutchen

If MVP voting took place during the All-Star break Andrew McCutchen would have my vote, hands down. McCutchen was a big reason the Pirates were 11 games over .500 and atop the NL Central at the time. With McCutchen leading the way, it appeared that the Pirates were well on their way to the teams first .500+ season since 1992–but things didn’t go as planned for McCutchen and the Bucco’s.

In the games following the Midsummer Classic, the Pirates did nothing but tumble; with McCutchen sharing in the same fate. Losing a spot in the standings each month following July, the Pirates finished the year 18 games back of first place in their division (good enough for 4th); with McCutchen’s batting average falling from .362 to .327 over that time span.

Though McCutchen batted .327 on the year, with 31 home runs and 96 RBI’s, he couldn’t keep up the pace throughout the entire season, which is very key in my book when it comes to making a selection for MVP. When a team relies on a player as much as the Pirates relied on McCutchen, that player has to be able to step up all season long to ensure that the team succeeds. Unfortunately, McCutchen wasn’t able to pull if off.

Thus, McCutchen isn’t my pick for MVP…

Buster Posey

When Melky Cabrera was suspended in August for his PED use, the Giants’ needed someone to step up and start impacting the team in a major way, should they have a hope at keeping up with the sizzling Dodgers; who were one game ahead in the division standings at the time. That person would end up being Buster Posey….Brandon Belt…Pablo Sandoval…and pretty much 75 percent of the team. But wait….that’s more than one person. I know. (That’s exactly my point.)

Buster Posey put up incredible stats this season, batting .336 on the year, with 24 home runs and 103 RBI’s, but he didn’t single-handedly put the Giants in the postseason; which is what I’ve been hearing a lot of lately. While Posey certainly played a major role in the Giants’ run to the playoffs, he wasn’t the only one coming up big night, after night, after night. There were several other guys that made major contributions as well.

That’s one of the main reasons I feel voting for MVP based on whether or not a player’s team made the playoffs is crazy. Nearly 100 percent of the time, a player didn’t push his team into the playoffs without some help from his teamates along the way.

So, although Posey had a stellar year, he didn’t quite make my cut…

My Vote for M.V.P.

My vote for Most Valuable Player of the National League goes to Ryan Braun.

While he didn’t ‘lead his team to the playoffs’, no player in the National League had the impact that Braun had on the Brewers. Without Braun, the Brewers don’t finish out the season as strongly as they did. Which is one of the key reasons he’s my pick for MVP.

Braun was ‘that guy’ for the Brewers all season long, and he didn’t let up when September rolled around, even though it appeared the Brewers were out of contention; if anything, Braun got even better. That’s the kind of player Braun is. He impacts his team day in and day out, even when it would be easy to hang it up.

Something I’ve been hearing a lot of lately is that Braun won’t win the MVP award due to his 2011 Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) accusation. Even though Braun was found not guilty, some are still holding it against him. My response to that being: Get over it.

By putting up even better numbers than last year, Braun has proven to the world that he doesn’t need banned substances to make him a beast; he’s a beast by nature. Though his batting average fell 13 points from last year, Braun smacked 8 more home runs–and for good measure, an extra RBI–than he did in 2011. While I don’t hold too much stock in stats, that really jumps out at me.

It’s incredible what Braun was able to do all season long to help out his team. He had the greatest impact of any other player in the NL, and doing so earns him my pick for 2012 National League MVP.

My Blogging Plans for Next Week

If you’ve been following this blog for awhile you know that every now and then I like to post an entry detailing my blogging plans for the next week or so. It’s just something I like to do to give you (the reader) a general idea of what’s to come.

All of next week I’m going to be posting blog entries on which players I feel deserve the three major awards of Most Valuable Player (MVP), Cy Young and Rookie of the Year (ROY). I’ll be giving my take on both the American League and National League, and as of right now, the plan is as follows:

Tuesday, October 9th: National League Most Valuable Player

Wednesday, October 10th: American League Cy Young

Thursday, October 11th: National League Cy Young

Friday, October 12th: American and National League Rookie of the Year

While the blog posts are going to be about which player I feel deserves each award, I don’t want you to think of them as predictions. Just because I think a particular player deserves an award doesn’t necessarily mean that’s who I think will win it–as was the case with my post on American League M.V.P.

Now, you may be wondering why I’m taking the time to blog about awards, that won’t be voted on until November, during a time when the playoffs are beginning to heat up. It’s really quite simple: I can’t blog about EVERY game that’s taking place at the moment–that would take too much time and effort–and closer to voting time the World Series will be taking place (which I fully plan to blog about, just as I did last year). So in reality, this is the only shot I have at fitting it in.

If anything MAJOR happens in the playoffs between now and Friday I’ll be sure to blog about it, but odds are that while there will definitely be some dramatic moments, nothing extremly blog worthy will occur.

So, unless something unexpected happens, get ready for a busy week of blog posts.